Bitcoin Price to Surge if Trump Wins 2024 Election, Says Bernstein
As the U.S. presidential election nears, analysts at Bernstein predict substantial short-term impacts on Bitcoin’s price, largely dependent on the election’s outcome. With experts weighing in, projections show that Bitcoin could either soar to new heights or sink to recent lows based on who wins in November. Here’s a breakdown of the anticipated market response to each candidate’s win.
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Trump Victory to Propel Bitcoin to New Highs
According to Bernstein, if Republican candidate Donald Trump secures the presidency, Bitcoin is expected to rise to a new all-time high, surpassing its previous peak of $73,949. Bernstein analysts, including Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia, foresee Bitcoin rallying between $80,000 and $90,000. This bullish outlook is attributed to Trump’s favourable stance on digital assets and his recent Bitcoin-friendly moves, including a well-publicized purchase using Bitcoin’s Lightning Network. Trump’s actions signal support for digital innovation and adoption, which could encourage Bitcoin’s growth.
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Adding to Bernstein’s outlook, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick has projected that a Trump presidency could push Bitcoin’s price to an extraordinary $150,000, with the potential for a $200,000 valuation by 2025. Such predictions underscore Trump’s perceived alignment with the crypto industry’s growth goals, fostering optimism about Bitcoin’s trajectory under his administration.
Harris Win May Spell Decline to $30,000
If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Bernstein analysts anticipate Bitcoin will experience a sharp decline, potentially dipping to around $30,000—a level last seen following the FTX collapse in 2022. This projected downturn, however, does not stem from Harris’s outright opposition to digital assets. According to SkyBridge’s Anthony Scaramucci, Harris’s administration is warming to the idea of digital currency adoption. Nonetheless, her cautious approach and slower regulatory action might dampen investor enthusiasm, impacting Bitcoin’s performance.
Election Odds and Bitcoin Price Volatility
The research suggests Bitcoin’s price volatility will correlate closely with election polling odds. Bernstein’s report implies that Bitcoin could gain value if the odds favour Trump as election day approaches. If the race remains tightly contested, Bitcoin’s price is likely to hover in a range-bound pattern, avoiding dramatic price shifts. As of recent data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, Trump holds a 7.3% lead in election odds, with a 53.4% chance of winning against Harris’s 46.1%.
Altcoins and Regulatory Impact Post-Election
Unlike Bitcoin, other altcoins are expected to stay range-bound until after the election, when clearer regulatory insights emerge. Bernstein analysts suggest that altcoins will respond to new regulatory stances, especially concerning the SEC chair’s position. The ongoing regulatory ambiguity has stifled growth in the digital asset sector, and a decisive post-election regulatory stance could unlock opportunities for altcoins. For instance, according to Charting Guy, XRP’s price is projected to remain within $0.43 to $0.67 until Bitcoin’s next major rally.
In summary, the 2024 election results will likely be a pivotal factor in shaping Bitcoin’s near-term price. Bernstein’s analysis underscores how political dynamics may play an instrumental role in either propelling Bitcoin to new heights or driving it to a significant low, with regulatory clarity setting the stage for altcoins’ performance after the election.
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Dr. Olajide Samuel juggles the demands of medical studies with a passion for cryptocurrency. A seasoned blogger, Olajide shares his vast global knowledge of the crypto space, offering insights to enthusiasts. Despite his busy schedule, his commitment to crypto remains strong, and he actively seeks ways to contribute to its future.
