Solana (SOL) has experienced an astonishing surge in value, skyrocketing to a new yearly high of $86.80 today. As the crypto community eagerly watches this remarkable ascent, questions arise regarding the sustainability of this upward trajectory until the year-end or the possibility of encountering a local top. A closer look at technical indicators and market analysis sheds light on the current situation.
Exponential Growth and Technical Breakouts
Since the beginning of the year, SOL has undergone a staggering 750% increase, rebounding from a low of $9.68 on January 1. Notably, the cryptocurrency has overcome significant hurdles, breaking both long-term horizontal and diagonal resistance trend lines.
July witnessed a pivotal moment as SOL breached a descending resistance trend line that had persisted since its all-time high in November 2021. Another crucial milestone occurred in October 2023 when the price surpassed a horizontal area that had alternated between support and resistance for over two years.
RSI and Momentum Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, provides insights into market conditions. Currently, SOL’s RSI is on an upward trajectory, residing above the 50 mark, indicating a bullish trend. Traders often use RSI to assess whether an asset is overbought or oversold, guiding their decisions to buy or sell.
Elliott Wave Theory and Potential Inflection Point
Technical analysts employing the Elliott Wave theory suggest that SOL is approaching the top of wave three within a broader five-wave upward movement that commenced in June. Wave three, having extended 3.61 times the length of wave one, maybe reaching a crucial juncture. Notably, the daily RSI has generated a bearish divergence, signalling a potential reversal. This divergence occurs when momentum weakens while prices continue to rise, often foreshadowing a shift in market sentiment.
Potential Scenarios and Price Targets
As the SOL price navigates the current juncture, analysts highlight two possible scenarios. A successful breakout from current levels could propel SOL to a 55% increase, targeting the next long-term resistance at $135. Conversely, a strong rejection may indicate the completion of wave three, potentially leading to a 25% drop towards the nearest support at $70.