Cardano Retail Investors Accumulate as Whales Exit and ETF Uncertainty Looms
Cardano’s ADA token is flashing early signs of a potential recovery phase as retail investors begin accumulating at lower levels, countering recent whale sell pressure. Despite a challenging macro backdrop and stalled ETF approvals, on-chain data suggests that the ecosystem may be entering a phase of quiet accumulation that historically precedes sharp rebounds.
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Retail Buying Offsets Whale Distribution
Recent data from Santiment and CryptoQuant show a notable redistribution trend in the ADA market. Large holders—wallets with between 100,000 and 1 million ADA—offloaded over 4 million tokens since mid-October, amounting to roughly $2.16 million in total value. However, selling momentum has slowed, allowing smaller investors to absorb the supply. Retail sentiment, now at a five-month low with a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 1.5:1, is acting as a contrarian indicator, often signaling a bottoming phase in Cardano’s price cycles.
Technical and Derivatives Metrics Support Rebound
Technically, ADA’s daily chart shows a developing pattern of higher lows within a descending channel, while the Relative Strength Index has dipped below 30—suggesting oversold conditions. Derivatives data reinforces this emerging optimism: open interest has risen 3.3% to $682.66 million, and taker buy dominance has increased, indicating fresh speculative demand. CoinGlass reports that short liquidations recently reached $270,000 versus $72,000 in longs, hinting that bearish traders are being squeezed as buying pressure returns.
If Cardano maintains its $0.53–$0.54 support region, analysts forecast an initial rebound toward the $0.69 resistance, with potential upside to $0.75–$0.80 in the coming weeks. Longer-term models, factoring in ecosystem growth and scalability milestones, project ADA could revisit the $1 mark by late November if network activity and investor confidence sustain.
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ETF Delays and Market Implications
Regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment. The Grayscale GADA ETF proposal, filed for listing on NYSE Arca, remains frozen amid delays at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission following the government’s partial shutdown. Approval odds for 2025 now sit between 75% and 87%, slightly down from earlier optimism but still strong enough to suggest institutional appetite for ADA exposure. If approval resumes post-shutdown, it could unlock billions in new liquidity, similar to Ethereum’s ETF-driven capital inflows.
Outlook and Ecosystem Momentum
Despite reduced transaction volumes—still down nearly 90% from November 2024 highs—Cardano continues to build quietly. Daily active addresses have risen above 45,000, while Midnight’s Phase Two airdrop has reignited excitement around privacy features. With whales slowing sales, retail accumulation growing, and ETF speculation brewing, ADA’s current consolidation may represent the calm before its next major move.
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Dr. Olajide Samuel juggles the demands of medical studies with a passion for cryptocurrency. A seasoned blogger, Olajide shares his vast global knowledge of the crypto space, offering insights to enthusiasts. Despite his busy schedule, his commitment to crypto remains strong, and he actively seeks ways to contribute to its future.
